Dylan's Weather

Hey guys,

Things are now starting to take off over at local edition,  you can see all the forecast details at www.localedition.tv

Now if you want to you can join the Local Edition face book page.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Local-Edition/8263434646?ref=ts

Thanks,

Dylan

Hey guys,

I have started to produce video forecast for www.localedition.tv

This is just the start of things to come!

I also want to tell everyone that the website will probably start to slow down latter this summer, mostly because we will be focusing our energy on Local Edition and getting on to TV!

Stay tuned

Hey guys,

I just wanted to keep all of you updated on the changes coming to Dylan’s Weather.

A lot has happened over the last few months, even though I can not tell you a whole lot.

I will start to post videos on the website over the next few months as things come together but trust me, big things are coming.

Now i am sad to report that in a few months we will probably be taking most of our website down. I think that we will keep the blog up as just an update to were you can watch me. But it does look like we will be combining websites into one.

Hope to give you guys many more updates in a few weeks.

Dylan Rodenbaugh

* Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for parts of the viewing area due to the approaching winter storm. Please see the Winter Weather Graphic on www.9and10news.com/weather for the county outline.*

*Please leave weather information below in the comment section regarding conditions in your area. Don’t forget to leave time and location!*

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Wow.

This storm is getting more and more interesting and more complex than what we were looking at this time yesterday!

First off, the little bit of freezing rain we had this morning in areas mostly west of M-37 was a surprise! The computer models and just plain ol’ common sense suggested the airmass with the dry east winds would have eaten away at the freezing rain before hitting the ground. Well, those winds *did eat away at a lot of the precipitation but not all of it, obviously.

We have even seen some light snow develop farther north but so far, no issues have been reported.

Heading into the nighttime hours, we are still looking at the dry easterly winds doing their thing at eroding some of the precipitation (freezing rain/sleet/mix) as it heads from south to north. The winds will be rather strong with speeds 20-35mph and gusty. So, whatever icing does occur, we could have some issues with downed limbs and power lines. The Mackinac Bridge could have High Wind Warnings due to the strong winds.

Temperatures around 5,000 feet tonight and early Friday will be around 40-44 degrees so obviously warm enough for rain to fall (from 5,000 feet to several hundred feet above the surface). When the rain encounters the shallow layer of cold air at the surface, that is when we get freezing rain and sleet worries in the L.P.

There is another surge of moisture moving in from the south from southern lower Michigan, Indiana and Illinois. As this solid chunk of freezing rain, sleet and rain moves north into the colder air, we have a prime situation shaping up to have our central counties (south of US-10) see some icy conditions this evening and tonight. But remember, those dry eastery winds will help erode some of the precipitation, so the extent of icing is still in question.

Farther north of US-10. the icy precipitation will really have a hard time advancing but we still have a fair shot of seeing something north to about M-72. But just like last night and early this morning, the strength of the storm itself could overcome the dry flow coming in from the east.

In the Tip of the Mitt and the U.P. we are looking at a chance for off and on light snow with maybe a little mix thrown in.

Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 20′s north and upper 20′s and lower 30′s south. Again, winds will be East 20-35mph and gusty.

Christmas Day is still looking interesting.

It will continue to be windy with winds E 20-35mph and gusting over 45-50 at times. The warm air aloft (at 5k feet) will stick around through midday then they should cool off a few degrees. That means whatever is falling midday (most likely a mix) will change over to all snow late afternoon into the evening hours. Highs should be in the 30′s in the first half of the day, then fall several degrees by dusk.

The main storm system itself will meander across the region late Saturday into Sunday. With the cold air in place, just plain ol’ snow is likely with some accumulations.

Lake effect snow showers return Monday and Tuesday with much colder temperatures.

Keep it tuned right here for updates through the day and night!!

Also be sure to watch 9&10 News tonight for graphical explanations.

-Meteorologist Jim Lehocky

* Winter Storm Watch in effect Thursday evening-Friday for Mason, Lake, Osceola, Clare, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Montcalm, Oceana, and Newaygo Counties (and counties south into SW Lower Michigan) due to the approaching winter storm. Additional Watches, Warnings and/or Advisories possible.*

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Currently, a storm system is getting its act together in Texas as it will continue to intensify as it heads N/NE over the next few days. Several states have Winter Storm Warnings already in effect due to this storm.
Winter Storm Watches also are in effect for other states. Blizzard conditions should develop in the Plains to Minnesota/Iowa/Western Wisconsin through at least Saturday.

There are several factors with this storm that will determine what falls where and at what time. It is a very complex situation, for sure.

The factors are:

Winds. The winds will increase Thursday evening out of the east. Wind speeds Thursday afternoon will be 10-18mph. Through the evening and overnight hours, wind speeds will be 15-30mph and gusty. Even through all of Friday, the winds will be easterly (maybe southeasterly in our central counties) 15-30mph and gusty. These east winds at the surface will be very dry coming in from Ontario. The winds will eat away at the initial surge of moisture/precipitation Thursday evening and night. But eventually, the moisture will win out and the icy mix will develop from south to north across the region.

Temperatures. The temperatures at the surface and about 5,000 feet up will be very critical also to what we will see. At a mile up, temperatures will be around 40 degrees which supports rain. But at the 6 foot level, temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30′s which supports that icy mix. However, at ground level where the surface is below freezing (i.e. the snow pack), it supports freezing rain. So, even a degree or two change…higher or lower…aloft and at the surface will change the precipitation accordingly. The computer models this afternoon are not in general agreement with the temperatures at 5k feet up, so yes, we have some huge questions still about precipitation type for Thursday night and Friday.

Marine influences. We cloud see more of a liquid event (rain) for areas near Lake Huron with water temperatures a bit warmer.

Elevation. With the different elevation in the state, that will create issues as well.

So, as you can tell, this is no clear-cut, easy forecast for precipitation type!

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The storm will start to affect the state Thursday mid to late afternoon with SW Lower Michigan (south of I-96 and west of US-131) with sleet, freezing rain, rain mix potential. This strong surge of mixed/icy precipitation should expand N/NE Thursday evening and night…up to about M-68/M-32 by Friday a.m. The E.U.P. and the Tip of the Mitt should miss out on the icy mix through Friday early a.m. We should see a chance for snow, however late Thursday night and Friday early a.m.

By Friday Noon, we should see a snow/mix across the U.P. (maybe some rain/mix near Lake Huron), with the icy mix still looking likely for areas south of the Straits to about M-55 with more of a rain/mix closer near Lake Huron. Farther south of M-55, we could actually see more of a drizzle/icy mix as the bulk of the moisture heads north.

By Friday 5p.m., the temperatures aloft and at the surface should cool enough to change everything over to pockets of snow and this should continue into Friday night and the weekend with some accumulation expected with the colder air moving in.

Tonight and Thursday will be relatively quiet with partly cloudy skies expected through Thursday a.m. then the clouds increase in advance of the storm.

Also keep in mind that with the strong winds, any ice accumulations on power lines and tree limbs could contribute to them cracking and falling.

Over the next few days, please feel free to add conditions in your area (precipitation type, road conditions, etc) in the comment section below so others can utilize that information.

Keep it tuned right here for the latest updates!!

-Meteorologist Jim Lehocky

**Good travel weather can be expected through Thursday early evening across the viewing area. Conditions should start to deteriorate from south to north across the L.P. Thursday evening and night. The U.P. should be “okay” through Friday early morning**

**Winter Storm Watch in effect Thursday evening-Friday for Mason, Lake, Osceola, Clare, Isabella, Gratiot, Mecosta, Montcalm, Oceana, and Newaygo Counties (and counties south into SW Lower Michigan) due to the approaching winter storm. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is possible. Additional watches across the state could be added over the next day or two. Stay tuned!**

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Clear to partly cloudy skies are on tap tonight with lows -7 to +10 north of M-55 and 0 to 13 south of M-55. We could see some patchy low clouds/fog develoep due to the melting of some of the snow today. Also, keep in mind, with the melting, whatever roads were wet will freeze tonight as the mercury drops. Winds will be N/NE 2-6mph.

More sunshine is likely for Wednesday so yet another great travel day! Highs will be in the middle to upper 20′s north and lower/middle 30′s south.

Thursday, Christmas Eve Day, is still looking quiet with increasing clouds and increasing winds ahead of the storm. Highs should be in the upper 20′s to lower/middle 30′s.

Thursday night into Friday morning will be very interesting in terms of what the weather will be. Some very warm air aloft will overrun the colder air at the surface. This could set up for a freezing rain/mix event especially south of the Straits into our central counties. The E.U.P. should be dry. It will continue to be windy with E/SE winds 15-30mph and gusty.

**This could turn into a -high impact- event with significant icing in the L.P. Thursday night/Friday midday then across the U.P. and Straits area midday into the afternoon hours in addition to any snow we see.**

Friday, Christmas Day, is also looking interesting. The latest computer models have shifted the storm a bit farther west…putting us a little more on the mild side. The warm air aloft should stick around through early afternoon in most areas giving us a chance for rain/mix in the L.P. and snow/ice mix in the E.U.P. However, colder air will move in from the SW Friday mid to late day changing everything back over to snow, especially at night. Highs will be in the lower to middle 30′s before the colder air moves in late.

Remember, in this type of set up, a degree or two change at the surface could mean the difference between a cold rain….or freezing rain/mix…or heavy wet snow. Right now, it is too tough a call to get too specific, but lets just say that traveling could be hazardous.

Periods of snow are likely for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 20′s Saturday and a bit colder for Sunday.

By the way, the heaviest snow with the Christmas Day storm should be in western Wisconsin, the far western U.P., Minnesota, Iowa and NW Illinois.

Keep it tuned to 9&10 Weather for the latest updates on the Christmas Day storm!

-Meteorologist Jim Lehocky

**BLIZZARD WARNING for Mason, Lake, Oceana and Newaygo through Thursday afternoon**

** WINTER STORM WARNING for most of the viewing area through tomorrow morning **

**Blizzard/Near Blizzard Conditions can be expected at times especially once the storm exits the area later today**

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Phase 1 of this storm has been affecting us since last night and will do so through mid afternoon. Phase 2 occurs this evening and tonight through Thursday.

Snow totals have been just about on target from what our weather team predicted. Anywhere from 6″-10″ of snow has fallen in most areas (especially in the L.P.) thus far. Granted, there are some areas that have seen a little bit less but overall, the predicted amounts have been on target.

We have also seen some wind gusts over 50-60mph earlier this morning.

Please continue sending us below your storm reports and snow totals with the time of measurement!

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Now, for the forecast.

Looking at the late morning data, we will see the center of the storm system move from Muskegon to Oscoda. Right under the path of the low, the winds will be much lighter. However on the N and NW side of the low, the winds will be strong. Once this system exits the region later today, the winds will ramp up in all areas once again. And as the temperatures cool this evening, the snow falling will be fluffier, hence it will be easier to whip around by the strong winds.

Remember, blizzard to near blizzard conditions will be likely at times. And heading into the nighttime hours, travel will be absolutely hazardous.

Winds today in the north will be E/NE/N 15-30mph and gusty. Near NW and W lower Michigan, the winds will increase more this afternoon as the storm exits. Winds will be N/NW 15-30mph and gusty. Our SW areas (where the Blizzard Warning is in effect) will see the strongest winds this afternoon, evening and night. W/NW winds 15-35mph and gusty here.

Temperatures tonight will be in the teens, so yes, it will be drastically colder. This will make the roads that much more slick especially on the backroads where the road crews might have taken a pass scraping down the road.

The concerns will be heavy snowsqualls (very intense across NW lower Michigan and Chippewa/Northern Luce counties in the U.P.) very late tonight and through all of Thursday. Even areas west of US-131 will see some heavy snowshowers. Highs will only be in the teens Thursday.

Friday will be interesting with partly cloudy skies for are interior sections but we will see the chance for see a few very heavy squalls shaping up in Chippewa and Luce Counties in the U.P. and NW lower Michigan. Highs will only be in the teens.

Keep it tuned to 9&10 Weather for the latest updates on part two of this storm system.

-Meteorologist Jim Lehocky

***Major Winter Storm still on track to hit the state Wednesday. We will start to feel the effects of it this evening. Near Blizzard Conditions are possible at times later tonight and all of Wednesday into Wednesday night***

***Winter Storm Warnings are in effect starting this evening through at least Wednesday night/Thursday morning***

***Please see the Winter Weather Alert graphic on 9and10news.com***

Just a note of interest. Exactly 14 years ago, we had a storm system and the lake effect behind it give Sault Ste Marie nearly 5 feet of snow over a few day period!! [Remember that storm??] While this current storm is potent, I do not expect to see 5′ of snow with it!!

Snow will increase from SW to NE later evening and tonight. Winds will pick up, as well, from the E/SE 15-30mph and gusty after midnight into the mid-morning hours.

Amounts will be quite heavy from south to north with the U.P. perhaps seeing the least amount of snow overnight tonight.

5″-9″+ could fall south of a Petoskey-Alpena line by daybreak with the heaviest of the snow possibly south of M-72 all the way to M-20. Some rain/sleet/snow mix could damper some accumulations in the Mt. Pleasant/Alma/Midland areas, but it still should be a mess. The U.P. by daybreak could see 3″-6″” but with the heaviest of snow to arrive around and after daybreak into the midday hours.

Lows tonight will be in the 20′s with a few SE areas around 30 degrees. But remember, those winds will be howling later tonight from the east.

The storm tracks on through the lower peninsula Wednesday late afternoon. This will give northern areas (north of M-72 into the U.P.) the best chance to see the moderate to heavy snow continuing. Winds will still be strong especially north of the low, then again on the SW side near Lake Michigan. North of the storm track, we will see several inches more of accumulating snow. South of it, we still could see a brief period of snow/sleet/rain mix in our SE/E Counties where temps still could be in the lower to middle 30′s.

Plain and simple. Traveling in the state tonight and tomorrow will be hazardous. While snow amounts are always questionable and hard to forecast, this will be a high impact storm even if we see a bit less in the snowfall totals.

Behind this system for late Wednesday night and Thursday and continuing into Friday we will see strong W/NW winds creating blowing and drifting of the snow that is on the ground. But we will also see some solid lake snows off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan.

Please travel with your daytime driving lights/headlights on for safety with the expected snowfall.

**Please pass along any weather information including snow reports by entering it below!**

Keep it tuned to 9&10 Weather for the latest in storm updates!

-Meteorologist Jim Lehocky

** Major Winter Storm Headed Towards Northern Michigan – Winter Storm Warning in effect for entire region starting Tuesday Evening **

Stay tuned to www.dylansweather.com for the latest info on the weather condtions.

A few light snow showers continue tonight but most areas will not see anything. Temperatures stay chilly with lows in the teens and twenties with light winds.

Of course, the big story is the approaching storm. Tomorrow looks to be calm before the storm with clouds rolling in and winds slowly increasing. Highs range from 28 to 33 degrees.

Tuesday night is when the storm starts moving in. Snow will turn heavy at times adding up quite fast. 4-8″ inches are likely by dawn with more Wednesday. Winds increase during the night reaching speeds of 10-25 mph.

Heavy snow continues moving up into the UP and Canada during the morning hours. Light to moderate snow continues across the rest of the viewing area. Winds really ramp up reaching 20-35 mph with gusts over 45 mph. Early highs of 25 to 34 are expected before dropping during the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow become an issue during the afternoon and overnight.  Which could be the second side of this storm.

Lake effect then kicks in as the temperatures keep dropping. Luce county and Northwestern can look forward to some very heavy lake snow Wednesday night. Storm totals by 10PM Wednesday will likely range from 8 to 14″ with higher amounts.

Lake effect snow continues Thursday along with bitter cold temperatures. Highs range from 14 to 21 degrees with windchills in the single digits. Additional accumulation is likely.

–Stay tuned for Details.

**The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 7p.m. tonight-Noon Friday for Benzie, Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and Antrim Counties for lake effect snow accumulations**

**email us at weather@9and10news.com with snow amounts/conditions or leave information below!**

**Please drive with headlights on for safety (especially in the snow squalls!)**

We will still see some “system” snow through the afternoon hours then lake effect kicks in with NW winds in the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan snowbelts.

Amounts thru the morning hours have not been spectacular by any means (less thaN a couple inches here and there) but with temperatures around or below freezing in spots, the roads are still slick in areas.

With the NW winds this afternoon and evening, the areas to watch for the heaviest lake snows will be in NW Lower Michigan (see the advised area above) and in far NW Chippewa and Northern Luce Counties in the U.P.

Temperatures this afternoon will hold steady or fall a bit (in the middle/upper 20′s and lower 30′s). NW winds 12-22mph.

Tonight, a vigorous shortwave of engery will move on through the region and will provide additional energy for some heavier bursts of lake snows. Ahead of it, the winds will shift to the W/NW then W late. This mean the snow bands will shift too. The heaviest snows for the morning commute should be in far western Lower Michigan (along and west of M-37) and also in NW Lower Michigan (see the advised areas above. But I also think Charlevoix County will see some heavy snow potential).

Lows tonight will be in the upper teens to lower/middle 20′s. W/NW winds 7-13mph.

As that piece of energy moves out of the region, behind it, slightly colder air moves in as the winds shift more W/SW. So, this means, anywhere from Northport/Empire NE to the Straits area (including NW Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmet, and Mackinac Counties), we could see a couple distinct, heavy snow bands develop. So, if this set up holds true for Friday afternoon-Saturday a.m., Brevort, St. Ignace, Cross Village, Good Hart, Pellston, Charlevoix, Boyne City, Northport and Empire all could see a good dumping of snow. Again, any slight shift in the wind direction will move around the snow bands (as is always the case with lake effect!!).

Highs on Friday will be in the middle/upper 20′s and lower 30′s. W/SW winds 10-20mph.

Still some lake effect especially in the Tip of the Mitt and Straits area (W/SW winds should continue) is likely. Highs will be similar to Friday’s.

Sunday is actually looking pretty quiet right now in the L.P. with highs in the upper 20s’ to lower/middle 30′s. If any one spot has the best chance for see a few more snowshowers, it will be the U.P.

Then, wow. I know it is still several days away, but computer model information is spewing out the idea of a Tue/Wed. major winter storm!!

Just something to keep an eye on!

-Meteorologist Jim Lehocky